Thursday, 24 July 2014 10:24

Eco data - HSBC July 2014 Flash PMI 52

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June’s HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing PMI was 52 (source), stronger than the 51 consensus estimate, and up vs. the 51.0 final PMI from the NBS and the 50.7 reading from HSBC in June. This month’s reading of a 52 was an 18-month high. According to the release, sub-indexes for output, new orders, backlogs, and output prices all changed in a positive direction vs. last month. The only somewhat negative reading for the month was employment (still negative, but not as bad as June). The reading, over 50, signals expansion in the manufacturing sector. In the release, HSBC Chief China Economist…
Wednesday, 23 July 2014 20:15

Qihoo 360 (QIHU) - outlook improves to positive

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Up on volume, price trends – possible new trend Qihoo 360 Technologies (QIHU, profile) has been above and below a potential triple support level with all three of our exponential moving averages tightly stacked around the 89.xx level. Along with this apparent support, all indicators have a positive slope and…
Wednesday, 23 July 2014 19:52

51job Inc. (JOBS) - hustling back to a positive view

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51job Inc. keeps up its hustle, climbs back to positive We recently took 51job Inc. (JOBS, profile) down a peg, after the stock was moving nicely from the end of June and most of July. However, as we noted at the time, JOBS’ time in the cellar may be short-lived,…
Wednesday, 23 July 2014 19:48

Hollysys (HOLI) - time off for good behavior...positive

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Hollysys time off for good behavior…positive outlook Hollysys (HOLI, profile) could be back on a positive track with only our proprietary settings for CCI and MACD giving neutral and bearish indications at the moment. The stock was downgraded a few weeks ago (July 10), after a sharp fall on strong…
Tuesday, 22 July 2014 19:58

New Oriental Education (EDU) Q4 FY2014 Results

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New Oriental Education (EDU) released Q4 and FY2014 earnings results that included top-line growth of +20% YoY, and net income of 42.9 million USD (0.27 EPADS). New Oriental’s Q4 results beat the consensus revenue estimate of 282 million USD and also topped the consensus EPADS of 0.24 USD per ADS, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of earnings surpassing consensus estimates. In addition to the quarterly results, the company announced a share repurchase program of up to 120 million USD, with a term from July 28, 2014 to March 31, 2015. Although the company had a strong Q4, management’s guidance for…
Saturday, 19 July 2014 04:55

Week in review - Jul 18, 2014

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Trading this week in US-listed China names was anything but boring. Almost as if noting how volume was slacking off toward the end of the previous week, it seems that the market decided to spice things up again. Factors behind the moves this week were mostly macro-level, with China eco data out, but there were also some geopolitical events affecting risk appetite in US trading (the Middle East, Eastern Europe), and of course a few single stock stories. As advertised a week ago, there was economic data aplenty this week. The National Bureau of Statistics unleashed a blast of industrial…
Friday, 18 July 2014 10:59

Eco data - Residential home prices for June 2014

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China’s National Bureau of Statistics released official housing data for June 2014 (source, Chinese), which showed a continuation of last month's weakening trend. Based on the NBS’ 70-city survey, the pace of new home prices growth fell by nearly 1.5% in June, growing about +4% YoY vs. a +5.4% YoY pace last month. Compared to May, new home prices fell about -0.5% MoM, with 55 cities reporting lower prices MoM, up from 35 in May. New home sales in the key metropolitan markets were still relatively strong, but the weakening trend was clear. Beijing new homes slipped to a +6.4%…
LightInTheBox – did the music just stop? After LightInTheBox (LITB, profile) had an unexpected bounce off of some otherwise ho-hum news, it looks like the music is about to fade and the house lights are coming on. We previously thought the stock was a neutral, at best, when combining the…
Thursday, 17 July 2014 21:47

Youku Tudou (YOKU) not looking good...

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Youku Tudou …turning bearish Back on June 26 we thought there might be a new upward trend forming for Youku Tudou (YOKU, profile). Indeed the stock added 10% from that morning’s open until the beginning of July. Since then, however, this potato has checked out. (This is a play on the…
Thursday, 17 July 2014 21:42

Changyou.com (CYOU) moves to negative outlook

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Changyou – See you later…negative outlook We’ve been on the road for the past few days and have been a bit slow to check in, and we missed Changyou’s (CYOU, profile) turn bearish. The good news is, looking at the volume, nobody has noticed what looks like an iceberg up…
Wednesday, 16 July 2014 18:36

Decent China GDP, local markets unimpressed...

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Today’s trading should be interesting for US-listed China stocks. There was some decent economic news out of China, but the local Asian markets didn’t seem to care much, at all. The Hang Seng jumped up early in the morning session, but gave up the gains later in the day, closing with a “meh” +0.27% on the day. After so much hand-wringing in the run-up to this quarter's GDP release, it stands to reason that some kind of reaction was in the cards...but no. The China-focused indexes weren’t encouraging either. The H-shares (HK-listed Mainland Chinese companies) lost a bit (-0.13%) while…
Wednesday, 16 July 2014 12:39

Eco data - IP, Fixed Assets, Real Estate, Retail Sales

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In addition to Q2 GDP, the National Bureau of Statistics released monthly data for June which included retail sales (source, Chinese), fixed asset investment (source, Chinese) , real estate development  (source, Chinese) , and industrial production figures  (source, Chinese) . The data showed a somewhat mixed picture, however seemed generally positive, with resilient retail sales, rebounding industrial production, and steady fixed asset investment, but did include expected weakening real estate data. On balance, the data seemed like an improvement vs. last month which included sequential declines in private and public fixed asset investments and seemed to concur with data out…
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